J.D. Sartwelle, Jr., President of Port City,  for many years has written his "Over My Shoulder" articles that are a "marketman" in cow-calf country perspective on why our markets of the previously ended month behaved as they did.  The article is published in several livestock trade magazines and in many country newspapers.

       August Over My Shoulder

 (Click on to print a PDF Version)

          August weather returned to typical patterns while markets remained strong and reflective of strong and/or improving market fundamentals.  Washington law makers toned down a little during a recess while some USDA agencies geared up several projects.

In a few words, August weather saw limited moisture, was hot, sunny, humid, and became downright brutal about a week into the month. End of month saw northern frontal activity bring a little unsettled weather into the picture.  Weather was conducive to rice harvest, grain harvest, and finishing up the milo harvest and making hay.  By mid month top moisture disappeared, and the relentless beating sun burned up pasture grasses in many areas.  It appeared like there had been no moisture during the preceding two months.  Many areas set records for highest average temperatures due mostly to night time temperatures that were several degrees higher than usual.  The only things that I know that likes the extreme heat is the devil and growing cotton.

The congress recessed but before they did, the Senate passed the Re-authorization of the Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting Act; the house will act when they return.  This bill is strongly supported by the industry.  Before they recessed, the house introduced the “E.coli Traceability and Eradication Act”.  The bill would require stricter testing procedures for ground meat and processing facilities and institute a tracking procedure intended to enable USDA to implement faster recalls.

The really big news throughout the month was the impending Department of Justice and Packers and Stockyards Administration joint “Competition” work shop that was to be held on Friday, August 27^th   This workshop was really a hearing or listening session concerning the proposed rules issued by P & SA at the end of June.  Opposing sides of the debate over the proposed rules are divided with one side saying that the rules are needed to insure competition and fairness to all in the market place while the other side says that it would destroy the system that has evolved over the past few years that has well served the industry and consumers to insure high quality beef  This writer does not think that the truth is in the middle, he thinks that adoption of the rules would take our industry back fifty years and have many unintended consequences for producers and consumers.

Good news for the month was news that Mexico was dropping their anti-dumping duties against US beef imports that for ten years has ranged from $.03 to $ .29 per pound.  Several days later Mexico added pork to their expanding, rotating lists of goods that will have duties placed on them for retaliation for the US calling to an end the trial period for Mexican trucks coming into the US through the NAFTA agreement.

In the feedyards with tight ready numbers of harvest ready cattle, fed cattle prices that started the month at the $93.50 level steadily increased during the month to reach $100.00 per hundredweight before backing down just slightly.  Prices were aided by strong cut out values, near and far out futures, hide and offal prices, and declining cold storage inventories of all meats.  Domestic demand is improving slightly while export demand is showing an increase for the year of 20 percent over last year and continuing.  The same is true for pork and poultry.

At the markets, after a somewhat slow previous month, August resumed a seasonal pace with numbers coming to town.  Cow numbers moderated a little while there were plenty of big calves in the calf mix.  Both sold with a good demand and sold mostly sideways-stronger throughout the month.  Little calves sold over the $1.30 mark, the four weights to the buck thirty and even more, while the 5 and 6 weights sold well over the dollar.

August is gone and it might be time for a break in the weather.  A few more fronts to cool us down and provide September moisture would be a good and welcomed thing.  Come on September.

 

ER MY SHOULDER FOR  CITY STOCKYARDS CO., SEALY,

    July Over My Shoulder

      July continued the good and not so good of the month of June. June was a rainy one that turned into a rare rainy July and continued the news of the Gulf oil disaster, immigration problems, a lack luster economy and a failing jobs market. Livestock markets were in strong hands while the grain markets jockied a little with weather and report concerns.

     As in June, "July doesn’t always promise moisture but it sure did this year and it was extremely timely over a large area; as usual it was spotty as some folks received quite a bit more than others. Despite hot days and hot nights there seemed to be enough moisture to grow a good bit of grass and most folks ended the month in better shape grass wise than the way they started." Quoted verbatim from last month about June activity.

     First of month saw much moisture from tropical activity that seemed to keep moisture activity stirred up throughout the month. Most but not areas of the state received from a little to a great deal of moisture throughout the month that continued to grow pasture grasses and hay. Despite long rainy periods, plenty of hay was made in most areas and has allowed folks to begin stockpiling hay reserves. Hot days and warm nights and abundant moisture can grow lots of grass even in July.

     The ag news in Texas still centered around security issues with some of our Texas/Mexican Export pens and the continuing Fever Tick issue. On the national scene, the big news was industry and congressional reaction to GIPSA’s (Grain Inspection, Packer and Stockyards Agency of USDA) proposed new rules relative to competition in the livestock sector. They issued new rules pursuant authorization by the 2008 Farm Bill. These new rules addressed forward contracts, packer ownership of livestock, and other market competition concerns. They originally had a comment deadline of August 23^rd until they ran into intense scrutinizing from the Livestock Sub Committee of the House Agriculture Committee. Industry reaction has for the most part been negative, not so much from the idea of insuring competition but that the rules are ambiguous, incomplete, not definitive, open to too much interpretation. Many say the rules as proposed would be "a lawyer’s heaven". Reluctantly, GIPSA did extend the comment period for 90 days after succumbing to industry and congressional pressures.

     Other news out of the national scene was the announcement by the Cattleman’s Beef Board’s audit of NCBA activities with the CBBA that included parts of 2008, 09, and 2010. This is part of the on-going rift between NCBA and CBB over their relationship and that of the Federation of State Beef Councils. It looks like a likely extension of the Mandatory Price Reporting is in the works as the house and senate both are considering a five year extension. In other news, the CBO is now saying that the Biofuels industry no longer needs tax credits for their programs, a move supported by most livestock groups that is slated to receive attention because of its cost cutting aspects. And from the Cooperative for Dairies, the news that they have accepted 34,442 cows for the next dairy buyout expected to begin sometime in August.

     Good news on the export front a store chain in Korea has accepted and is featuring T-bone steaks for the first time in many months. It now appears that the U.S. and Japan can now schedule talks for increased trade, since they seem to be getting a handle on the outbreaks of FMD that has occupied them for several months.

     In the feed yards, July prices started on the strong side at $91.00, rose to the $95.00 level before receding to a high of $93.00 at month’s end. The market did all that with minimal support from carcass cutouts or close in future’s support. The mid- year report indicates fewer cows meaning a continuation of fewer feeder cattle and even with May and June feedyard placements being over last year has had minimal impact so far and probably won’t some say.

    At the market on our level, July numbers moderated as most folks had cleaned up old crop cattle on a high market and were content to watch the grass and calves both get bigger throughout the month. The calf trade was still very good and high as well as processing cows and bulls.

      The pork complex has remained in strong hands as fewer numbers has allowed profitability in the industry.

     We’re now looking towards the end of the summer months and in the strange position of seeing growing, green, conditions over a large part of the country. Looks to me like we better start figuring out what to do with a large number of bigger, fleshier, calves a little later on. Looks like a good problem to me.

END

June Over My Shoulder

      June was punctuated during the month by many of the May carryovers; ie, the drilling disaster in the Gulf, immigration law in Arizona, Supreme Court nominee hearings, the economy and its recovery.  Weather wise, many of the areas in need of moisture at beginning of the month received the much needed ingredient to grow grass and finish off grain production.  The month of June brought a good bit of ag news in the state, the nation and in trade concerns.  June markets traded mostly sideways to strong or sideways to weaker with nothing falling out of bed except the stock market towards the end of the month.

June doesn’t always promise moisture but it sure did this year and it was extremely timely over a large area; as usual it was spotty as some folks received quite a bit more than others.  Despite hot days and hot nights there seemed to be enough moisture to grow a good bit of grass and most folks ended the month in better shape grass wise than the way they started.  The month started with moisture from the north and ended with weather from the South in the form of tropical activity.

Ag news in Texas centered around security issues with some of our Texas/Mexican Export pens, the continuing Fever Tick issue, and announcement from Texas AgriLive Extension relative a fed beef comparison to grass fed beef.  Researchers compared ground beef from fed cattle and ground beef from grass fed cattle and found evidence favoring fed beef as more beneficial to human health.  About the same time a new USDA report suggests an upward trend in the consumption of grass fed cattle, although it still remains a niche market.

During the month, USDA-APHIS began hearings on a new Animal Disease Traceability Framework Approach to replace the earlier discarded National Animal Identification System that they and the industry had worked on for years.  USDA-GIPSA (Grain Inspection-Packer & Stockyards Administration) announced new rules on competition, ownership, and forward contracting of livestock as was dictated by the 2008 Farm Bill.  GIPSA will take comments until August 23^, before issuing final rules.

On the last day of June, the Senate Ag Committee is supposed to begin talks relative the next Farm Bill.  And last but not least out of Washington, cattle folks sent messages to USDA-APHIS about their rule to possibly allow imports from regions of Brazil that have been declared free of Foot and Mouth disease.

On the trade front that has been very good since the first of the year, the US and Japan have put any beef trade talk on the back burner while Japan focuses on their Foot and Mouth disease problems.  During the month Taiwan officials indicated that they want to inspect US packing plants to address labeling issues.  The big bomb shell on the trade front has been a tentative beef trade agreement between Canada and China that will and has wrinkled the noses of government and cattle groups across the country. 

         The big thing out of USDA was their admonition to NCBA over their thoughts of changing the governance structure relative NCBA and the Federation of State Beef Councils.  As a result, NCBA will hold off on any vote to restructure their relationship with the Federation. 

         In the feedyards, at the front of the month, fed cattle sold in the middle nineties and were supported by strengthing drop credits, good cut out values, and movement.  As the month progressed, support from futures eroded, movement slowed, cutouts values fell and the top end fed prices fell to $91.00 as packers gathered supplies for the 4^th of July holiday.  Current drop credits have been bolstered by a 95% increase in hide values compared to last year, tallow at 23% higher, variety meats up 50% and pet food items up 34%.

         At the markets we’re still looking at excellent demand for processing cows and bulls as well as stocker calves.  Into the sixties on the best cows, the seventies on the best bulls while the light weight calves are well into the dollar twenty and above while the better five and six weight cattle are selling above the dollar mark.  With timely June rains, market runs will be able to stick to more or less seasonal patterns as far as numbers go.

         The pork deal is good and is aided by a good domestic demand as well as seeing increased export trade.  Hogs in the sixties make life a little easier for the hog boys.

         We’re now in the middle of summer with a shot at continuing moisture that should help the grass and hay situation.  A little cooler and little more moisture won’t hurt anyone’s feeling that I know.

END

May Over My Shoulder

My-o-my…..how do the months go by so quickly!  The last of the spring months began with a need for moisture and ended the same way, particularly in the coastal bend area of our State.  The news was dominated by the drilling disaster in the Gulf with the usual finger pointing, the new immigration laws in Arizona, Supreme Court nominees, world wide economic news,  a change of government in England, and good markets until they crashed around us through no fault of our own.

The month promised much and delivered little in terms of moisture.  Only one weather maker at mid month produced beneficial rains pretty well all over and after that showers became a hit and mostly miss proposition for most areas.  By end of month, longer days, near 100 degree temperatures, and lack of top moisture brought an end to spring grasses and weeds, and proved to be a hindrance to growing summer grasses.  The corn and milo boys will need more moisture to make their grain, while a lot of the cotton boys spent the month replanting because of poor stands.  The “good moisture” promises at beginning of the year, have turned into the same empty promises of the past few years.  Whatever happened to El Nino?  He didn’t last very long!

        On the national scene there was much going on that concerned the world of agriculture.  Livestock groups began to petition congress for an end to ethanol supports, citing a mature corn based ethanol industry should compete for corn stocks just like the non-subsidized feeding industries.  The ongoing fight over antibiotics in animal feeds continued during congressional hearings during the month; two key senators took USDA to tasks for diverting funds from needed rural development projects to further the administration’s “locavore” initiatives. 

Meanwhile, during the month, USDA, through Ag Secretary Vilsack, informed National Cattlemens Beef Association officials of USDA concerns about their proposed new governance structure as proposed by their Governance Taskforce.  The concerns that USDA has, all center on NCBA’s relationship with the Federation of State Beef Councils which was created by the Beef Checkoff Program that USDA has over-site over. 

USDA held hearings on the new traceability approach that was outlined earlier in the year and will continue to hold listening sessions on competition in the livestock sector.  The Secretary also announced a $40 million purchase of beef product for the National School Lunch Program, the School Breakfast Program, the Summer Food Service Program, the Food Distribution program on Indian Reservations, the Commodity Supplemental Food Programs, and the Emergency Program.  As far as I know, I don’t qualify for any of these.

In the market place, the month began on a solid basis that continued to support strong fed cattle prices, feeder cattle prices, and stocker prices.  The fed market started the month with a good many cattle selling for a $1.00, being well supported by the May and June futures, higher cutout values, very good out front sales volumes, and excellent export volume.  The second week continued the trend but sensed a slow down.  By the end of the third week, when the stock market, reacting to whatever it reacts to, fell precipitously on one day, took our industry with it as general uncertainty engulfed the markets.  By end of month, the June futures fell some nine dollars, choice cutouts dropped over five bucks, and the live market dropped almost ten dollars.  Our fundamentals didn’t change, the world’s did and we all take the gaff.  The uncertain times we live in!

At the markets, cow/calf folks took the hickies just like everybody else as slaughter cow and bull prices as well as calf prices backed off to end the month after riding high for the first half.

June is here and will start with a need for more moisture to grow summer grasses and keep the crop boys going.  Seems like we have entered this month like this for several years now.  Sometimes, we get lucky, maybe we will this year. 

END

April Over My Shoulder

      The spring month of April is gone and left a mixed bag of treats.  Weather was a treat for some; a bane to others, Cattle markets were good for most if you were selling something and tougher if you were on the buying end.  There seemed to be a good bit going on in the industry that could be favorable and well as unfavorable.  Nothing new, we’ll roll with the punches as usual.

        Spring weather seemed to be a series of fast moving fronts that collided with Gulf moisture and either hit you or missed you.  The further north and north-east you were, the more likely you were to see a good bit more weather, some even violent that resulted in damaging winds and tornadoes.  Most of Texas received some very good rains but if you reside in the Coastal Bend area you saw the weather makers but you didn’t see very much moisture.  Moisture was virtually non existent in the Coastal Bend, a good bit of East Texas and on into Louisiana and eastward.

        The mixed bag of the weather, allowed for a very good hay making month, while most of the farm boys finished all plantings, except beans and on into the northern and mid west areas the planting of corn was weeks ahead of last year.  The planting intentions reports are estimating 2.2 million more acres of corn and a half million more acres of soy beans and will come from lands leaving the CRP Program and with less wheat in the forecast.  Looks like it will be in the ground a lot earlier than last year.

        Meanwhile, cattle markets got a shot in the arm beginning at the top with the fed market, a supportive retail complex, supportive feeder futures and a spring forage and grass fever making the grazing boys charge ahead.

        On the political scene, the financial markets overall seemed to grab most of the national attention as well as immigration and energy reform.  Fact is, those that set the agendas, are trying to figure out what to tackle next.  Ag groups began pushing for meaningful and permanent estate tax reforms as the end of this year means the end of our temporary rules governing estate taxes.  The groups are pushing to allow limits to at least $5 million and a much lower top tax rate. 

In the meantime, The Dept of Homeland Security will provide 21 million dollars to Texas A & M and to Kansas State University for work on animal disease control and prevention.  This work will focus on development of new vaccines, rapid diagnostics methods, models to simulate disease outbreaks, and educational programs to train first responders.  We’ll all reap the benefits that trickle out of this one.

        Imports and exports dominated much thought and time throughout the month.  Efforts out of the US Trade Reps office began to show results.  Much discussion with Brazil over a long standing cotton trade dispute also included possible imports of Brazilian beef into the US market.   Reports out of USMEF indicate that so far this year that Canada’s import volume is 19% up with a 25% increase in value; Japan is 45% and 35% in value; Greater China and Vietnam are up 36% and 38% in value while the Middle East is 28% and 50% up in value.  Slowly but surely.

        In the feedyards, fed cattle prices that started the month in the mid nineties, soared to a $1.00 with the help of fewer ready numbers that are lighter than last year, supportive cut out values, and retailers that held their margins and kept product moving.  The Cattle on Feed report showed 3% fewer cattle even with a 3 % increase in placements and 4% more marketed numbers than last year.  Cold storage reports for the month even showed significantly less beef, pork, and poultry in storage.  We’re either eating it or exporting it, we’re not throwing it out. Beef and pork have outstripped poultry in price increases and is expected to have a tough few weeks as retailers are expected to feature more fresh poultry.

        In the markets, April runs were about seasonal but with a larger number of slaughter cows as so far this year, cow slaughter has jumped ahead of last year in nearly every part of the country. Despite more numbers, cow and bull prices have risen to new historial highs because of less processing meat coming into the country.  Calf prices have been supported with less total numbers and feeder futures that have been supportive.  Sure is nice to have something that someone else wants.

        May is here and plenty of folks are in need of top moisture to keep grass and crops going like they should before it get too hot.  El Nino needs to come through and bring more moisture than what we’ve seen in late March and all of April.D

March Over My Shoulder

       March is gone and if the beginning of spring hasn’t reached you yet, it soon will.  March started wet, began to grow, got kicked in the foot, cause winter didn’t want to quit; but longer days and the tilt of the earth will soon warm us up and we’ll sure nuff see growing weather ahead of us.  March markets for the most part were good to cowpeople as we saw increases in the fed market and a continuation of higher calf and feeder cattle prices as well as the cow and bull trade.  There was even big time news from elections and from elected officials.  To say the least, March was active.

        March began with a cold front and rain over most of the state and continued during the month with faster and faster moving fronts that brought more rain and even snow to many areas.  Farm boys that began the month with limited planting accomplished worked a little land and planted between fronts with slightly warming temperatures.  End of month finally saw nighttime as well as daytime temperatures increase but still be too cool and too wet in some areas to get much outside work done.  Obviously, sub moisture is plentiful most everywhere, but as we go along there will be a need for additional top moisture for grass as well as crops. 

        March was full of non industry news and well as much ag industry news.  Beginning with primary elections at home and across the nation at first of the month, health care debate on the national scene seemed to be all anybody talked about and then finally house passage and signing by the President.  The political maneuvering hasn’t stopped yet and looks like it will continue for a long time.  On the agriculture front, several key senators and house members have petitioned the administration to insist that Japan immediately grant increased market access for U.S. beef.  Others have asked that the administration resolve the year long Mexican trucking dispute that pulled funding from the pilot program of cross border trucking that was/is a part of NAFTA.  There was news of more states trying to get ahead of the animal rights folks by enacting state regulations and assurances for animal welfare.  There was even a new bill in the U.S. House that is backed by the Humane Society of the U.S. (HSUS) entitled “Prevention of Farm Animal Cruelty Act”. The bill would set animal confinement rules for producers who sell food to the federal government.  Is it to be considered by the Ag Committee? NO; the bill has been filed in the House Committee on Oversite and Government Reform. If we don’t take care of our own business, there are others who will.

        Probably the biggest bombshell to hit the air ways since the reports of bad science and false reports in the global warning controversy is the United Nations owning up to bad science in the four year old definitive report entitled “Livestock’s Long Shadow”.  Now, the report is coming unraveled, thanks to efforts by researchers at the University of California, funded, in part by the Beef Checkoff Program, that debunks livestock’s role in the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG).  The world we live in!

        Fed cattle took an upward spiral during the month as fed cattle prices rose from the middle eighties to the high nineties before backing off at end of month.  The market was supported by higher cutout values, significantly lighter carcass weights, increasing drop values and higher futures.  Packer margins were well into the black.  There are those that are saying that either cutout values will retreat or cash cattle and futures will come roaring back.  The divergence of the two segments, they say, will not last for long.

        Meanwhile at the markets, with fed cattle prices as a cue, moderating temperatures and abundant moisture, will allow plenty of green grazing to began a re-growth stage that can graze a lot more cattle than during the winter.  Demand is/was good for all calves, regardless of weight, sex, or kind, but was particularly good on any grazing weight cattle that could go back out to finish up green grazing.  Most of the calves coming to town were well conditioned because of the winter spent on their mommas.  Light weight calves prices well over the dollar mark were common with a good many heavy weight cattle either side of the dollar.  Slaughter cows and bulls reached decade highs as very few came to town.

        The pork complex trended lower most of the month and ended in the fifty dollar neighborhood.  Low priced pork product competes with our beef on the grocery shelf.

        Spring is here with the need for warming temperatures and a continuation of top moisture.  Spring time brings baby calves and when it appears that we have something to eat it becomes an unbeatable combination. 

END

February Over My Shoulder

       The short month of the year is now over and from the standpoint of weather, most want to see it over with.  From the markets standpoint most would like to see February prices hang around for a good while.  Meanwhile in Washington, the biggest news to us ag folks might be that USDA is back to the drawing board with a national ID system.

        February weather across the nation was harsh and helped to make this winter a very long one in most parts of the country.  It’s taken its toll on livestock from production areas to the feeding areas and has caused lots of losses in terms of lost animals, lost performance and monetary costs and losses.  Depending on where you were in the country, it was excessive snow, rain, mud, temperature or whatever, and generally made life with livestock miserable.  February is now over with and the first spring month is now on us.  More moderate temperatures are in the near future and it seems there will plenty of moisture in most places.  As usual though, there are a few areas particularly in far south Texas that haven’t received what they should to get spring off to a good start.

        The weather was cold on the East Coast, but hot in Washington as talk of another go round of health care debate heated up during the month.  Of interest to ag folks, Secretary of Agriculture, Vilsack, announced that USDA had listened to the industry during the fall in hearings around the country concerning NAIS (National Animal ID System) and was scrapping those plans.  He asked for industry help in establishing a trace back system beginning with livestock that entered interstate commerce.  We’ll have to see how all of this plays out.

        In the feedyards, where ever they are, snow and rain made for muddy, sloppy conditions that affected performance and yields and added days to feeding time.  As ready supplies of harvest ready cattle slowed down, packers hunted for supplies and fed prices jumped from the mid eighties to the low nineties.  Quality, yields, and carcass weight all took hits because of the weather.

Meanwhile in the country, farmers twiddled their thumbs, unable to burn any diesel and work some land for the first time since the late harvests of last year.  Cowboys caught a little break from January weather and worked a few cattle and came to town with a large number of still big calves.  While they were able to work a few cattle, numbers were basically short and demand begin to grow with the spring moisture prospects.  Slaughter cows and bulls took quantum leaps in prices as well as the feeder cattle.  The light weight calves jumped well over the dollar bill while the heavier steer and heifer calves sold high nineties to over the dollar.  Slaughter cows sold into the sixties while the best bulls sold into the seventies.

        The pork complex with slightly fewer numbers sold into the mid fifties and were affected with movement difficulties just like the fed cattle.

        Spring is around the corner for us in the southern areas and a little longer for those in the north.  Daylight hours are increasing and we’ll start to warm up.  When we dry up a little, we ought to jump start the planted green grazing, clover, and winter grasses before a full fledged spring.  It really needs to get here pretty quick because most folks are running out of hay.  Come on March.

January Over My Shoulder

      January ushered in the new year with better long-range weather prognostications and less than usual expectations about our industry and our economy.  By end of month with more than ample rainfall, the prospects for a good spring were emerging; and there were end of month signs of regaining our political health and even the economy saw improving indicators.  What do they say?; it’s always darkest before dawn, well hooray for dawn coming.

        January weather for the entire month was weather not seen in several years.  West to East and North to South, no area seemed to be spared from excessive rain, snow, ice, or temperatures that caused much concern in livestock land and in southern areas of citrus production.  It wasn’t an easy month; livestock markets were generally stronger while grain softened.  Outside work took a back seat cause of temps or rain or flat out snowy, wet, muddy conditions.  It was an eventful month in other ways, the big news in Washington was still the economy, health care, senatorial elections, trade disputes, and confirmation hearings while here at home the gubernatorial election season took off like a big bird.

        There was ag and livestock news out of the capitol as the month started with Taiwan backtracking on the late year agreement to allow expanded market access for U.S. beef.  Leaders in the House Ways and Means committee urged the Administration to put pressure on Taiwan through the U.S. Trade Representative.  In other export news, late year increases in exports were encouraging but the year still ended with total exports being less than the year before.  South Korea led the late year surge.  Also out of the capitol came USDA revision of the 2009 corn crop that indicated more corn than previously thought to end the year with a 13.2 billion bu crop and establish a new record yield of 165.2 bushels per acre.  The national ID programs is back on the radar as several livestock groups have banded together to present a statement of 12 principles to USDA and to congress.  The statement stressed confidentiality, minimum costs, operate at the speed of commerce, and be voluntarily phased in over time. 

        A new industry self-help initiative has been a new video developed by the Texas Beef Counsel and Texas Farm Bureau that will put a New Face on the Beef Industry.  It utilizes beef producers to tell the modern beef production story to consumers with the goal of education and understanding.

        Here at home, the month started cold, then came moisture and made for some tough conditions.  Outside work was hampered and in many cases was relegated to fixing pipes, working on wells, and feeding cattle.  In the feedyards, with snow, ice and then mud, performance suffered but markets took on stronger tones until the end of the month when there just wasn’t much activity.  During the month though, movement was fairly heavy while packers saw increases in drop credits because of strengths in the hide, tallow, pet foods, and meat and bone meal markets.  The month started with fed cattle prices in the lower to mid eighties and saw a rise to $86.00 before making no trades the last days of the month.

        At our local markets, the month saw heavier than usual numbers, partially due to more hold over cattle that were prevented from being marketed because of end of year weather.  The market started slow but was fast to pick up and by end of month saw the heavy calves higher by several dollars and the lighter weights higher by a lot more.  Slaughter cows and bulls picked up steam as the month progressed and ended a few dollars higher than they started.

        Slaughter hog numbers backed off slightly during the month and most top weight porkers sold mid to high forties.  Weekly numbers still are over two million head each week but are below year ago numbers.

        An improving economy bringing on better domestic demand and expanded exports are what our industry needs.  First things first though, let’s get spring here with more moisture over a wider area so that we can see a better production year than the last few.  Come on February.  END-

DECEMBER  OVER MY SHOULDER

     December and the end of the year is on us and it seems like both just got started.  My-oh-my, where does time go?  December will end the year wet after experiencing the harshest weather so far this winter and maybe even for the past few years; not only in our state but the nation as well.  Local markets at first of month saw light numbers as weather hampered movement in the county and at the end on the month most markets saw no sales activity.  The fed cattle trade saw an increase in activity and prices at the end of the month and put on a couple of dollars to end at the $82.00 level.  The only political activity out of Washington for the month was the vote to raise the debt ceiling and the Senate debate over health insurance reform.  It seems that insurance reform is a long way from health care reform which was the rally cry way back when.

        My, what a year this one has been!  Extreme to extreme seem to set the pattern throughout the year in all that we did.  Rainfall totals in most areas will be close to what we call normal annual rainfall, but it certainly doesn’t reflect how miserably dry and difficult an operating year that it really was.  2009 started dry, ended wet; first half of the year couldn’t grow grass to take care of a cow, and ended with our cattle in pretty good shape to start the winter; first of year we couldn’t make any hay and ended the year with hay not made because of excessive and constant moisture.  Most will scramble for enough hay stocks to make the winter that started wet and looks like it will end wet.  It’s certainly different from the past few winters.

        The year started with an economy in shambles, and doubtful as to whether or not proposed solutions would give us a fix.  We installed a new administration, at the first of the year, and in the ag world, still talked of a delay in the implementation of COOL, problems with NAFTA, horse slaughter concerns, and the National Animal ID System.

At mid year we saw the first of three dairy buyouts for the year; another BSE cow in Canada, a TB cow in Texas, fewer cattle, hogs, and chickens on feed and an export trade that reflected struggling economies in the rest of the world.  About midyear, the house and senate both jerked the funds from the National ID System (NAIS) and all at once started talking Supreme Court Nominee, Climate Change Bill and Cap and Trade and almost nothing else until the health care issue dominated the political processes till the end of the year.

        However, while others were talking the major issues, there were a few others that seemed to be concerned with humane slaughter of all livestock species, how ground beef is to be handled, and a myriad of other things that others want to police for the ag community if we won’t or don’t do it ourselves within the existing rules that we have in place for our industry. 

        On the market scene, in the feedlots, first of year began in the low $80’s, saw a rise to a spring/summer high of $86.00 in May before declining to $82.00 then back to a high of $88.00 in October to end in the year in the lower $80’s.  End of year saw significantly fewer cattle on feed as well as declining pork and poultry production.  All in all, with a shift in eating habits to eating more meals at home, competition for the meat dollar was tough.  Calf prices were fairly bright at first of year, turned down into the summer, and turned worse into the fall reflecting the uncertainty in the economy, the price of grains, feeding conditions, grazing conditions and the fed market outlook.

        We’re kicking out a year that few would want to re-live.  We faced and solved many problems and questions and as usual will begin the new year, like we always do, with other problems and questions.  If we can take care of a cow with adequate moisture and growing conditions, we can usually find a way to survive the new set of problems and conditions that a new year brings.  It looks like the start of a year that will have the moisture to grow the grass that we haven’t had the past couple of year.  Come on New Year.

November Over My Shoulder

        November followed the good pattern of September and October with continuing moisture and by month’s end saw some real winter weather in the form of colder temps and snow in the north.  In the markets, fed cattle started the month strong, lost its glow, settled downward, while the calf trade never saw a glow with a shorter than average marketing month and in the grain end, analyst’s spent the month trying to figure out how a late harvest was ultimately going to affect corn yields and prices.  On the political front, the folks in Washington were consumed with health care issues and how to outfox one another in the processes.

        We seemed to get a little moisture in most places at sometime during the month.  November moisture, while probably not as much as the month before, kept green grazing growing, didn’t hamper outside activity quite like it did the month before, and added to the rainfall totals in many areas, that will make yearly totals almost appear normal by the time it’s all over with.  By end of month, winter like temperatures put the frost line further and further south.  Still by month’s end many areas from I-10 south didn’t see a frost.

        Out of Washington comes the news of another knee jerk reaction as one of our California Senators has introduced legislation to create an Office of Humane Slaughter within FSIS.  One more example of someone wanting deprive the industry of regulating itself.  Others in Washington are celebrating the first year of Mandatory COOL by wanting to include dairy products at the same time the World Trade Organization has announced that they will establish a “dispute settlement panel” to consider complaints from Mexico and Canada.  During the month, USDA announced the allocation of 234 million to promote US food and agricultural products to our overseas markets.  Beef export news has again been hot and cold; exports are down overall with the most declines coming from Mexico and Canada while exports to Japan are an the increase and Taiwan is now open to bone-in beef.  In the feedyards, the month started strong, with the expectation that the market might stay in strong hands for a while with tighter supplies and declining carcass weights.  $88.00 cattle at first of month turned into $85.00 cattle even as carcass weights declined dramatically and supplies tightened mightily.  Market support at the retail level has to be what affects us most; if our families don’t have the money to spend they won’t spend it.  Families don’t usually operate the same way governments do.

        At the markets, some folks who put off working in October came to town with calves that ended up with more large calves than usually seen in November.  Heard the comment more than once, that the cattle response to early fall rains exceeded most folks expectations about how a cow could improve in conditions and continue to make her calf much larger at the same time.  For the most part, calves for the month were much larger than usual and unfortunately, the larger the calf the bigger the hicky for the month as the market just couldn’t get un-tracked with declining fed prices and grain harvest unrest.  Calf prices at our local markets seemed to bog down a little more each week as the month progressed as did slaughter cow and bull prices.  The fog cleared at end of month as most markets did not conduct weekly sales for the entire Thanksgiving week.

        The pork complex fared about like it has the past several months; most projections for 2010 are  saying that finished hogs will lose $10.00 a head throughout the year.  Nice forecast, huh.  The lower priced hogs don’t help beef in the grocery store.

        December is here and it will be a short month as it will see only three marketing weeks before everything comes to a screeching halt for the month and the year.  The month is gonna start wet and cool and if you haven’t seen a frost yet, you probably will fairly quickly.